[Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic

[Rob Laporte]

That WP article's simulation is well done, except for one crucial thing--it does not show the time scale. The last motion graphic showing the spread when only 1 in 8 people move at all, ever, well it just ends when it's starting to really spread.

Easy-ish for a mathematician but not for me would be showing when if ever would extreme social distancing and near-perfect mask use by almost everyone result in enough recovered people blocking the spread to as yet uninfected people such that, in the end, much less than 80% of the population ultimately gets covid-19?

Meanwhile, the US is at about 50,000 deaths, and at the highest estimate maybe 10% of the population has been infected. That math is easier to do; hard to accept.


Take Care,


Rob Laporte

Chief Business Development Officer | Founder | Chairman

DISC, Inc. - Making Websites Make Money

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________________________________
From: James Triplett <jm-hiddentech at vj8.net>
Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2020 1:19 PM
To: Rob Laporte <rob at 2disc.com>
Cc: hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net <hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net>
Subject: Re: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic


Rob is making good sense here:

         "The math on what's needed for herd immunity is quite simple as
math goes, depending on transmissibility, and standing now at about
80%. Whatever this percentage is does not change the logic here."


For those for whom "math" is scary territory, I saw a great visualization in the Washington Post that allows you to see the curve as it develops:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

cheers,
James
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