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That WP article's simulation is well done, except for one crucial thing--it does not show the time scale. The last motion graphic showing the spread when only 1 in 8 people move at all, ever, well it just ends when it's starting to really spread. </div>
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Easy-ish for a mathematician but not for me would be showing when if ever would extreme social distancing and near-perfect mask use by almost everyone result in enough recovered people blocking the spread to as yet uninfected people such that, in the end, much
less than 80% of the population ultimately gets covid-19? </div>
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Meanwhile, the US is at about 50,000 deaths, and at the highest estimate maybe 10% of the population has been infected. That math is easier to do; hard to accept. </div>
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<span style="font-size:10pt; font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; color:rgb(102,102,102); background-color:rgb(255,255,255); font-weight:700; line-height:normal">Rob Laporte</span></p>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> James Triplett <jm-hiddentech@vj8.net><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 21, 2020 1:19 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Rob Laporte <rob@2disc.com><br>
<b>Cc:</b> hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net <hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic</font>
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Rob is making good sense here:<br>
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"The math on what's needed for herd immunity is quite simple as<br>
math goes, depending on transmissibility, and standing now at about<br>
80%. Whatever this percentage is does not change the logic here."<br>
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For those for whom "math" is scary territory, I saw a great visualization in the Washington Post that allows you to see the curve as it develops:<br>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/</a><br>
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cheers,<br>
James<br>
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