[Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic

Thu Apr 16 12:55:17 UTC 2020

True, the data on reinfection is based on early studies with low numbers of subjects and lack of clarity on causes of apparent return of the virus. Soon we will have reliable stats. However, it stands against reason to assume that this coronavirus will confer immunity way longer than any other coronavirus, and we have tons of good studies over decades on that. Luckily, studies show that the original SARS confers about the longest immunity, two years.

No doubt continuing mitigation behaviors will change future outcomes. That's my point: a projection of return to anything like pre-pandemic life is no in line with reason and the range of well-established evidence. Much new evidence is needed, but we can derive sound conclusions from the substantial set of good evidence available now.

Take Care,

Rob Laporte

Chief Business Development Officer | Founder | Chairman

DISC, Inc. - Making Websites Make Money

413-584-6500

rob at 2disc.com<mailto:rob at 2disc.com> | LinkedIn<https://www.linkedin.com/in/2disc/> | 2DISC.com<https://www.2disc.com>

NOTE: Emails can be blocked by spam filters throughout the web. If you don’t get a reply within an expected span of time, please call.

________________________________
From: Alan Frank <alan at 8wheels.org>
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 8:37 AM
To: Rob Laporte <rob at 2disc.com>
Cc: hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net <hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net>
Subject: Re: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic

With regard to stories of reinfection, we're not sure whether that's
what's happening or people who are not completely cured.  And if it is
true reinfection, is it common enough to be epidemiologically
significant?  And is it happening because there are two (or a very small
number) of varieties which do not provide cross-immunity?  If so, we can
create a vaccine which protects against both.

Another thing we don't know is what would happen if we go back to
business as usual, but with everyone wearing masks (and perhaps some
other measures, though I believe the experts who downplay the importance
of transmission via contaminated surfaces).  I suspect that once we get
the number of current infections far enough down, we could do that
safely.

There is one more useful measure we can take in November, though it
would be a couple of months for it to become effective.

--Alan

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic
Date: 15.04.2020 09:01
 From: Rob Laporte via Hidden-discuss
<hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net>
To: "hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net"
<hidden-discuss at lists.hidden-tech.net>

Hi HTers,

I worry that, for a variety of reasons, ever more Americans can’t
perform simple reasoning. But maybe what’s seems so clear to me is
some kind of delusion. Sp I ask whether the following reasoning is
sound.

         * Flattening the curve increases the time span until herd immunity
but not the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity.

         * The math on what's needed for herd immunity is quite simple as
math goes, depending on transmissibility, and standing now at about
80%. Whatever this percentage is does not change the login here.

         * Social distancing, masks, hand-washing, and the like flatten the
curve but won’t reduce the total area under the curve and above the
horizontal axis of time. That is, sooner or later, the same quantity
of people will ultimately contract Covid-19.
        * Even if 10% of the population has it now (and countries doing good
testing show nothing close to that yet), pre-pandemic behavior would
produce a flare up of occurrences nearly equal to past flare ups. Of
course the higher the percentage of the population that becomes
immune, the slower it spreads, but even at 25%, it would spread fast.
(A simple math matter for anyone qualified).
        * If, as more research is showing but not yet concluding, people
aren't immune after recovery, this cycle never ends--and vaccines
would not produce immunity either.

         * The math of x percent of recovered are immune for Y months is also
relatively simple math that enables planning.

         * Average duration of immunity after a recovery from a coronaviruses
is 48 months, according to one summary all past studies.

         * Therefore, if a vaccine can't be made, return to the way things
were before he pandemic is not remotely possible ever.
        * If a successful, permanently effective vaccine can be made, only
after almost everyone has take it can things begin to return to the
way they were before the pandemic.

Seems like solid reasoning to me. If it is, we'd best be planning for
it.

This is more speculative, but stands to reason: Regarding treatment
and outcomes, increasingly strong evidence shows that much of the
damage is done by +2 and +3 charged iron free radicals released when
the virus replaces iron in blood cells. Leave aside for the moment the
problem of blood carrying less oxygen. Strong free radical scavengers
would likely improve outcomes, perhaps substantially, because tissue
damage, usually mostly to the lungs, is a big contributor to grave
illness and death. Such has has been shown with vitamin C's positive
effects, but there are stronger antioxidants available over the
counter. This would mean that we don't need big pharma as much for
treatment, and that inexpensive and widely available supplements would
substantially reduce hospitalization rates. Since mainstream media
gets a huge percent of its revenue from big pharma, such news may be
slow to spread.

Take Care,

  Rob Laporte

  Chief Business Development Officer | Founder | Chairman

  DISC, Inc. - Making Websites Make Money

  413-584-6500

rob at 2disc.com | LinkedIn [1] | 2DISC.com [2]

NOTE: Emails can be blocked by spam filters throughout the web. If you
don’t get a reply within an expected span of time, please call.

Links:
------
[1] https://www.linkedin.com/in/2disc/
[2] https://www.2disc.com
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