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True, the data on reinfection is based on early studies with low numbers of subjects and lack of clarity on causes of apparent return of the virus. Soon we will have reliable stats. However, it stands against reason to assume that this coronavirus will confer
immunity way longer than any other coronavirus, and we have tons of good studies over decades on that. Luckily, studies show that the original SARS confers about the longest immunity, two years.</div>
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No doubt continuing mitigation behaviors will change future outcomes. That's my point: a projection of return to anything like pre-pandemic life is no in line with reason and the range of well-established evidence. Much new evidence is needed, but we can derive
sound conclusions from the substantial set of good evidence available now. </div>
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<span style="font-size:10pt; font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; color:rgb(102,102,102); background-color:rgb(255,255,255); font-weight:700; line-height:normal">Rob Laporte</span></p>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Alan Frank <alan@8wheels.org><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, April 16, 2020 8:37 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Rob Laporte <rob@2disc.com><br>
<b>Cc:</b> hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net <hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic</font>
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<div class="PlainText">With regard to stories of reinfection, we're not sure whether that's
<br>
what's happening or people who are not completely cured. And if it is <br>
true reinfection, is it common enough to be epidemiologically <br>
significant? And is it happening because there are two (or a very small <br>
number) of varieties which do not provide cross-immunity? If so, we can <br>
create a vaccine which protects against both.<br>
<br>
Another thing we don't know is what would happen if we go back to <br>
business as usual, but with everyone wearing masks (and perhaps some <br>
other measures, though I believe the experts who downplay the importance <br>
of transmission via contaminated surfaces). I suspect that once we get <br>
the number of current infections far enough down, we could do that <br>
safely.<br>
<br>
There is one more useful measure we can take in November, though it <br>
would be a couple of months for it to become effective.<br>
<br>
--Alan<br>
<br>
<br>
-------- Original Message --------<br>
Subject: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the Pandemic<br>
Date: 15.04.2020 09:01<br>
From: Rob Laporte via Hidden-discuss <br>
<hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net><br>
To: "hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net" <br>
<hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net><br>
<br>
Hi HTers,<br>
<br>
I worry that, for a variety of reasons, ever more Americans can’t<br>
perform simple reasoning. But maybe what’s seems so clear to me is<br>
some kind of delusion. Sp I ask whether the following reasoning is<br>
sound.<br>
<br>
* Flattening the curve increases the time span until herd immunity<br>
but not the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity.<br>
<br>
* The math on what's needed for herd immunity is quite simple as<br>
math goes, depending on transmissibility, and standing now at about<br>
80%. Whatever this percentage is does not change the login here.<br>
<br>
* Social distancing, masks, hand-washing, and the like flatten the<br>
curve but won’t reduce the total area under the curve and above the<br>
horizontal axis of time. That is, sooner or later, the same quantity<br>
of people will ultimately contract Covid-19.<br>
* Even if 10% of the population has it now (and countries doing good<br>
testing show nothing close to that yet), pre-pandemic behavior would<br>
produce a flare up of occurrences nearly equal to past flare ups. Of<br>
course the higher the percentage of the population that becomes<br>
immune, the slower it spreads, but even at 25%, it would spread fast.<br>
(A simple math matter for anyone qualified).<br>
* If, as more research is showing but not yet concluding, people<br>
aren't immune after recovery, this cycle never ends--and vaccines<br>
would not produce immunity either.<br>
<br>
* The math of x percent of recovered are immune for Y months is also<br>
relatively simple math that enables planning.<br>
<br>
* Average duration of immunity after a recovery from a coronaviruses<br>
is 48 months, according to one summary all past studies.<br>
<br>
* Therefore, if a vaccine can't be made, return to the way things<br>
were before he pandemic is not remotely possible ever.<br>
* If a successful, permanently effective vaccine can be made, only<br>
after almost everyone has take it can things begin to return to the<br>
way they were before the pandemic.<br>
<br>
Seems like solid reasoning to me. If it is, we'd best be planning for<br>
it.<br>
<br>
This is more speculative, but stands to reason: Regarding treatment<br>
and outcomes, increasingly strong evidence shows that much of the<br>
damage is done by +2 and +3 charged iron free radicals released when<br>
the virus replaces iron in blood cells. Leave aside for the moment the<br>
problem of blood carrying less oxygen. Strong free radical scavengers<br>
would likely improve outcomes, perhaps substantially, because tissue<br>
damage, usually mostly to the lungs, is a big contributor to grave<br>
illness and death. Such has has been shown with vitamin C's positive<br>
effects, but there are stronger antioxidants available over the<br>
counter. This would mean that we don't need big pharma as much for<br>
treatment, and that inexpensive and widely available supplements would<br>
substantially reduce hospitalization rates. Since mainstream media<br>
gets a huge percent of its revenue from big pharma, such news may be<br>
slow to spread.<br>
<br>
Take Care,<br>
<br>
Rob Laporte<br>
<br>
Chief Business Development Officer | Founder | Chairman<br>
<br>
DISC, Inc. - Making Websites Make Money<br>
<br>
413-584-6500<br>
<br>
rob@2disc.com | LinkedIn [1] | 2DISC.com [2]<br>
<br>
NOTE: Emails can be blocked by spam filters throughout the web. If you<br>
don’t get a reply within an expected span of time, please call.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Links:<br>
------<br>
[1] <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/2disc/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/2disc/</a><br>
[2] <a href="https://www.2disc.com">https://www.2disc.com</a><br>
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