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<p><font face="Calibri">Check this out, if you haven't already....</font></p>
<ul>
<li><font face="Calibri"><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map">https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map</a><br>
</font></li>
</ul>
<p><font face="Calibri">I used to live in Queens. My parents still
live there, and they're currently stuck in Florida trying to get
back there. I'm trying to convince them to stay put.</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">Mik</font><br>
</p>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">---
Mik Muller, president
Montague WebWorks
239-R Main Street, Greenfield, MA
413-320-5336
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://MontagueWebWorks.com">http://MontagueWebWorks.com</a>
Powered by ROCKETFUSION</pre>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 4/24/2020 4:41 PM, Rob Laporte via
Hidden-discuss wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:MN2PR14MB30375FE0007F90D246573D4AE5D00@MN2PR14MB3037.namprd14.prod.outlook.com">
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<div style="font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size:
11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
That WP article's simulation is well done, except for one
crucial thing--it does not show the time scale. The last motion
graphic showing the spread when only 1 in 8 people move at all,
ever, well it just ends when it's starting to really spread. </div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size:
11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
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<div style="font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size:
11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Easy-ish for a mathematician but not for me would be showing
when if ever would extreme social distancing and near-perfect
mask use by almost everyone result in enough recovered people
blocking the spread to as yet uninfected people such that, in
the end, much less than 80% of the population ultimately gets
covid-19? </div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size:
11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size:
11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Meanwhile, the US is at about 50,000 deaths, and at the highest
estimate maybe 10% of the population has been infected. That
math is easier to do; hard to accept. </div>
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11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
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<span style="font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;
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background-color:rgb(255,255,255); font-weight:700;
line-height:normal">Rob Laporte</span></p>
<p dir="ltr" style="font-weight:bold; line-height:1.38;
margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt">
<span style="font-size:10pt;
font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;
color:rgb(102,102,102);
background-color:rgb(255,255,255); font-weight:400;
line-height:normal">Chief Business Development Officer |
Founder | Chairman</span></p>
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margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt">
<span style="font-size:10pt; line-height:normal;
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color:rgb(102,102,102);
background-color:rgb(255,255,255); font-weight:400;
line-height:normal">DISC, Inc. - Making Websites Make
Money</span></p>
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margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt">
<span style="font-size:10pt; line-height:normal;
font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif"></span><span
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color:rgb(102,102,102);
background-color:rgb(255,255,255); font-weight:400;
line-height:normal">413-584-6500</span></p>
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margin-bottom:0pt"><span
style="font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;
font-size:10pt; line-height:normal"><a
href="mailto:rob@2disc.com"
title="mailto:rob@2disc.com" style=""
moz-do-not-send="true">rob@2disc.com</a> |
<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/2disc/"
title="https://www.linkedin.com/in/2disc/"
moz-do-not-send="true">
LinkedIn</a> | <a href="https://www.2disc.com"
title="https://www.2disc.com" moz-do-not-send="true">2DISC.com</a></span></p>
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font-size:11pt; color:rgb(134,17,6)">NOTE:</span></span></b><span
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style="font-family:Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif;
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<hr style="display:inline-block;width:98%" tabindex="-1">
<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font style="font-size:11pt"
face="Calibri, sans-serif" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> James
Triplett <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:jm-hiddentech@vj8.net"><jm-hiddentech@vj8.net></a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 21, 2020 1:19 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Rob Laporte <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:rob@2disc.com"><rob@2disc.com></a><br>
<b>Cc:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net">hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net"><hidden-discuss@lists.hidden-tech.net></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Hidden-tech] The Simple Logic of the
Pandemic</font>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="BodyFragment"><font size="2"><span
style="font-size:11pt;">
<div class="PlainText"><br>
Rob is making good sense here:<br>
<br>
"The math on what's needed for herd immunity is
quite simple as<br>
math goes, depending on transmissibility, and standing now
at about<br>
80%. Whatever this percentage is does not change the logic
here."<br>
<br>
<br>
For those for whom "math" is scary territory, I saw a
great visualization in the Washington Post that allows you
to see the curve as it develops:<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/</a><br>
<br>
cheers,<br>
James<br>
</div>
</span></font></div>
<br>
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