[Hidden-tech] a question for HT futurists

[Chris Hoogendyk]

Reva Reck wrote:
>  How about a job openings for people who know how to handle and/or 
> train a team of horses?  How much will a gallon of gas cost in 15 
> years? As a computer consultant for small businesses, I try to keep my 
> tech skills current. As an observer of ecological and societal trends, 
> I fear my skills canning and preserving fruits and vegetables, felling 
> trees and splitting wood, and caring for horses may be more useful 
> long-term than my abilities with complex technologies. 
>     Sorry, Monday morning blues.

Can't help replying to that.

I also saw a story in the Gazette about a local farmer training young 
oxen for plowing. However,

The story that I think tells the story was about test driving a new car 
from Japan (the Honda FCX Clarity). The reviewer started out saying that 
it seemed just like any ordinary 4 door sedan. Good acceleration, etc. 
Then after driving it for a while, it sank in how different it was. 
Almost no engine noise. You could hear the tires swooshing along on the 
road, because the rest of it was so quiet. It was in fact a hydrogen 
fuel cell car. They had reduced the size of the fuel cell stack by half 
while increasing the power output by 50%. They had state of the art 
factories ready to launch production as soon as the market is ready. 
This same story told that the research that lead to the Prius began in 
the 1990's. The Japanese were looking ahead at a time when the U.S. auto 
industries were accelerating their push into bigger and bigger SUV's and 
trucks. The Japanese are now years ahead of us in automotive 
technologies. We may not even stand a chance of catching up. U.S. car 
companies are still moaning and complaining about fuel efficiency 
requirements, and their idea of hybrid is an SUV that can burn ethanol.

I compare this to a review I saw back at the beginning of the year -- 
maybe February, again in the Gazette. Ford was coming out with a new 
Super Duty Truck. It was so HUGE. Unbelievable. It would make you feel 
like you owned the road. It would also suck up gas like you wouldn't 
believe. But, hey, you want power? Here it is. When I read this review, 
and the fact that Ford was focusing on building such things, I couldn't 
believe it. Absurd. It was only a couple of months later that gas prices 
began sky rocketing. There was another story, perhaps on NPR this time, 
a few months later, about car dealerships around the country with 
parking lots full of SUV's that they couldn't sell. The featured 
dealership that they interviewed was a Ford dealership in Littleton, CO 
-- out in the middle of big truck country -- that had a lot full of 
these Super Duty Trucks that they couldn't sell. Nobody wanted them. I 
actually saw one of these trucks in New Hampshire in August. My daughter 
looked up at it as we were walking out of a restaurant and responded 
with a gut reaction of, "Holy Sh**".

So, if we can't get our act together as a nation and start looking a few 
years ahead (I know it's too much to ask for the U.S. to look even one 
generation ahead), I think we may be in the position of needing more 
language training teachers and nanny training teachers. We will be 
serving the technocrats of Japan, India and China rather than being 
equal partners in a technological world.

Another interesting juxtaposition I saw in New Hampshire recently was a 
middle aged white guy with a Veteran license plate and an American flag 
sticker on the back of his car. The American flag sticker was 
immediately above the Toyota emblem. It was a Toyota Prius.


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Chris Hoogendyk

-
   O__  ---- Systems Administrator
  c/ /'_ --- Biology & Geology Departments
 (*) \(*) -- 140 Morrill Science Center
~~~~~~~~~~ - University of Massachusetts, Amherst 

<hoogendyk at bio.umass.edu>

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Erdös 4