[Hidden-tech] need thoughts on future search tools for kid's book

[Jan Werner]

So why aren't we flying around like the Jetsons yet?

I recall attending a conference sponsored by Digital Research in Boston 
about 25 years ago to promote CP/M-86 (remember that?) for the IBM PC at 
which a Digital Equipment (remember them?) engineer replied, when asked 
about the "paperless office" (which the visionaries were then touting) 
that it was about as likely to catch on as the paperless bathroom.

And then there are those who have been saying for decades that the 
keyboard will go away because of improvements in voice recognition. 
Aside from the fact that even a moderately good typist can enter data 
much faster than one can speak it (except perhaps for the guy in the old 
Fed-Ex commercials), can you imagine working in an office with 50 people 
talking to their computers all day long?

As Yogi said, it's hard to predict things, especially about the future.

Jan Werner
____________

Steven Solomon wrote:
>   ** The author of this post was a Good Dobee.
>   ** You too can help the group
>   ** Fill out the survey/skills inventory in the member's area.
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> 
> 
> Folks,
> 
> Chris got it right, in my estimation. Digital ink/paper and heads-up 
> displays will blow away the screen size problem. So-called iVsion 
> binocular glasses cost $3G a couple of years ago, and now they cost 
> about $400. When the cost drops to $60 they will be as ubiquitous as 
> iPod Minis. Meanwhile companies like Boeing are using the current 
> devices to replace pallets full of repair manuals for 747s. Amazon is 
> selling its clunky Kindle using electronic ink for under $600. Foldable 
> displays have been demonstrated and are only a few years away from being 
> productized. Watch French Thomson and Phillips go for this to leap past 
> OLED displays dominated by the Asians.
> 
> As for the "washabilty" issue, well, that was solved decades ago by 
> folks that make wrist watches and SCUBA gear. Design and build the new 
> devices well, lower the cost to consumers, lower power requirements, and 
> they will be of no more concern in the laundry than the tee shirt that 
> your five year-old just barfed on. From my personal experience, walking 
> around in the last two days of terrible rain, my iPod Nano suffered no 
> damage. The laundry problem is an engineering and manufacture, pricing, 
> one. Not a show stopper.
> 
> So, invest in China's (and neighbor's) growing industrial capacity, 
> earnestly seek to reform Africa's hobbled post-colonial politics and 
> economies, make new markets lead by teenagers in S. Korea and Japan, and 
> let 'er rip. Our kids will catch up.
> 
> S
> 
> 
> On Apr 29, 2008, at 4:52 PM, Chris Hoogendyk wrote:
> 
>>   ** The author of this post was a Good Dobee.
>>   ** You too can help the group
>>   ** Fill out the survey/skills inventory in the member's area.
>>   ** If you did, we all thank you.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Reva Reck wrote:
>>> Has it occurred to any of you miniaturization proponents that looking 
>>> at anything on a 2x3 inch screen is less than ideal? How about the 
>>> fact that clothes, especially kid's clothes,  need to be washed 
>>> occasionally & that pockets loaded w. electronics will be a nightmare 
>>> for whoever's doing the laundry? Are these electronics going to be so 
>>> cheap that we won't care when our kids lose them or break them after 
>>> falling on the playground and/or tearing a pocket? Or are these going 
>>> to be classroom items that belong to the school, hopefully with 
>>> head-lice proof headsets? Pardon my cynicism, but I think it's 
>>> important to distinguish between virtual reality and the real world.
>>
>> The screen is an issue. There are people who are getting along with 
>> the iPhone while they are on the move. But you're not going to be 
>> reviewing a corporate spreadsheet or approving a page proof on an 
>> iPhone. This is why people are looking at foldable digital paper, 
>> further future contact lenses as binocular 3D displays, and lots of 
>> other ideas. It's also why some people have larger computer displays 
>> or living room oversize plasma displays. The iMac essentially is the 
>> display.
>>
>> With sufficient miniaturization and intelligence, the contacts 
>> approach will be able to present essentially anything your eyes are 
>> capable of seeing. This is already being experimented with with 
>> goggles. It's just a question of continuing miniaturization.
>>
>> Wearables and miniaturized portable devices are already around. I have 
>> a T-shirt that has a wireless display icon covering the front. As I 
>> walk around, it lights up a faint blue to indicate the signal strength 
>> wherever I happen to be. It's a purely geek thing, but there it is. If 
>> I wash it, I have to remove the emblem from the front, disconnect the 
>> interior wire, and remove the battery from an inside waist level side 
>> pocket. Wash the T-shirt, reassemble it, and go geek.
>>
>> And, yes, prices are dropping. There is crazy geek toy stuff that 
>> wouldn't make sense if it wasn't dirt cheap to whack a chip into 
>> something and make it work. The first calculator that I bought cost a 
>> few hundred dollars and couldn't do what the $15 scientific 
>> calculators can do now. Heck, the first digital computers filled large 
>> rooms and could barely do what a $15 programmable scientific 
>> calculator can do now. Look how robust and ubiquitous cell phones are 
>> now. The first hard drive I got on my Mac Plus way back in 1986 was 
>> several times larger and multiples more expensive than a drive I can 
>> get now that has more than 10,000 times the capacity and is much 
>> faster as well. The MacBook Air doesn't even have a disk drive. It 
>> uses a variant of memory chips as a solid state drive. I have a 
>> keychain fob that is an actually memory simm that I once paid hundreds 
>> of dollars for. Now it is junk, or geeky decoration, because we can 
>> get 1000 times that much memory in the same space for less money.
>>
>> It's happening. And the speculation stuff is in labs being played 
>> with. People's imagination and genius will determine what becomes 
>> available. The market place and what the masses respond to will 
>> determine how things really turn out.
>>
>>
>> ---------------
>>
>> Chris Hoogendyk
>>
>> -
>>   O__  ---- Systems Administrator
>>  c/ /'_ --- Biology & Geology Departments
>> (*) \(*) -- 140 Morrill Science Center
>> ~~~~~~~~~~ - University of Massachusetts, Amherst
>> <hoogendyk at bio.umass.edu>
>>
>> ---------------
>> Erdös 4
>>
>>
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> 
> Steve Solomon
> http://www.othereality.com
> 
> "Anyone who isn't confused doesn't really understand the situation."
>                                    
> Edward R. Murrow
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